It’s clear that the automotive technician shortage is being felt strongly by repair shop owners and customers alike. However, will this shortage keep getting worse as time goes on? The answer isn’t as clear-cut as you may think.
Yes: High-Tech Vehicles Require More Skills
As mentioned earlier, automotive technology is evolving at a rapid pace. This leads to the need for more skilled technicians — a gap that isn’t being met by the projection of mechanics likely to join the workforce in the coming years.
Miskelley has noticed a lack of training “needed to address both hard repairs as well as the electrical and technological ones” among technicians new to the workforce. She attributes this to the “limited resources and time to teach the ever-changing technologies” in the automotive education system.
On the other hand, Miskelley predicts that there will be “an increase in mechanics once more electric cars become available,” but ones who are “[less] adept at hard part replacements but ideal for the electrical and technical side.”
Yes: People Will Keep Gas-Powered Cars for Longer
Despite major automakers offering a diverse lineup of relatively affordable electric vehicles (EVs), skepticism is still rampant when it comes to adopting electric cars over gas-powered ones.
A recent poll conducted by the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago found that 47% of adults in the U.S. say it’s unlikely that they’d buy an EV as their next car. Nearly 80% of participants claimed that the lack of charging infrastructure is their main reason for not considering electric cars. If this skepticism continues and people keep their gas-powered vehicles, the technician shortage is likely to remain as it is.
No: EVs Generally Require Less Maintenance
While EVs account for less than 1% of the over 250 million vehicles in the U.S., sales are seeing exponential growth with each passing year. The BLS states that EV sales in the U.S. have increased from 0.2% of total car sales in 2011 to 4.6% of total car sales in 2021. In addition, S&P Global Mobility is forecasting EV sales to reach 40% of total passenger car sales by 2030.
What does this have to do with the automotive technician shortage? The U.S. Department of Energy notes that EVs typically require less maintenance than the average gas-powered car, truck or SUV. For one, there are fewer moving parts and fluids that require regular maintenance. Also, brakes on EVs are regenerative, which reduces wear and tear. If cars on the road require less maintenance, this could lessen the number of auto technicians needed in the future.
No: The BLS Sees Little Need for More Mechanics
The BLS predicts that the need for automotive technicians will change very little from 2021 to 2031.
Which maintenance services will be required by future vehicles is unknown, as both electric and gas-powered models get more advanced. Only time will tell if the automotive technician predictions set out by the BLS will hold up.
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